Out of all the NFL individual awards, none are followed as closely as Most Valuable Player. And while it’s the most important NFL award for players, it’s also the most-wagered upon by gamblers.
Since every player in the NFL is theoretically eligible to win the MVP award, the return on investment can be quite high if you bet on a heavy underdog in the NFL MVP oddst. Most players will have long odds since you pick the winner from a very large pool of names.
Most people know that quarterbacks take home the MVP far more often than any other positions, but some deeper betting insights might help you turn a profit. Odds for the NFL MVP award are open all year round, making it a dream for hungry gamblers.
2023 NFL MVP odds
See below for the current NFL MVP odds (for the top 25 players) as posted at top Arizona online sportsbooks. Click on any odds to go straight to the sportsbook, claim the posted bonus and start registering your betting account.
How to bet on NFL MVP futures
While most gamblers are familiar with single-game bets, let’s focus on futures. These are wagers on events weeks, months, or even a full year away. The NFL MVP bet is a classic example of this style.
Unlike live sports betting odds, the odds for futures bets are released well in advance. Notably, for NFL MVP, the odds are usually released shortly after the previous season’s Super Bowl has concluded. Some sportsbooks will even let loose their odds while the confetti is still on the field.
These odds then constantly shift right up until the bet is graded. The NFL betting odds will reflect the new probabilities of each player winning the award at the end of the year. If a star quarterback gets a few new receiver weapons during the offseason, his odds will get weaker. If a receiver has a hot start to the season, catching multiple touchdowns in each of the first few weeks, his odds will get weaker.
Thus, with futures bets, some of the skill is in deciding when to bet. Grabbing a quality selection at great odds will result in more profit over the long term, compared to backing an over-obvious selection at terrible odds.
To find the best time to make your NFL MVP bet, there is no hard rule. One piece of knowledge that may help you is that popular bets often see their odds get weaker over time. And less popular bets might see their odds strengthen. For example, if the player you wish to bet on plays for a team like the Dallas Cowboys or New England Patriots, the public is going to like that bet. Money will flow in and that player’s odds will weaken over time.
Odds for the NFL MVP market will almost always be displayed in American format as a default. American odds are not too difficult to understand, and can be learned with just a few minutes of study. It is the same odds format that you see when looking at Arizona Cardinals odds.
It’s important to understand that there are two sides to every bet. There is a favorite that the sportsbook has determined to have a better chance of hitting and an underdog that has a lesser chance of winning.
The favorite will have their odds shown as a negative number. This number is how much must be wagered by the gambler to win $100. For example, if DraftKings AZ has DeAndre Hopkins with odds of -125 to win NFL MVP, you would need to bet $125 to win $100, returning a total of $225.
The underdog will have his odds shown as a positive number. This is how much can be won by a $100 bet. Let’s say that Larry Fitzgerald carries odds of +1,000 to win the NFL MVP. You can bet $100 and if he wins, you will be returned $1,000 in winnings for a total of $1,100.
Before you place a futures bet on the NFL MVP, check the rules that your sportsbook of choice offers. Crucially, you should examine player eligibility requirements. If a player misses the entire season is your bet considered void or a loser? Each sportsbook will have its own variation on these rules.
Signing Up At Arizona Sportsbooks
You can be up and running with a legal online sportsbook in Arizona in just a couple of minutes. While the process is quick and painless, you do have to hit a few specific steps. Here’s what to do.
- Click on our links to the sportsbook website.
- Follow the prompts and complete registration.
- Be sure to claim the bonus offer.
- Make a deposit and start reviewing the odds.
To sign up and play, you need to be 21 years of age or older. You don’t have to live in Arizona, but you do need to be within state lines when placing bets. The legal sportsbooks verify location with the assistance of geolocation tracking software.
If you complete the sign-up process on the web, download the mobile app from the sportsbook website and log in on your device. The app provides the same experience as you’ll find online, just in a smaller format that’s optimized for your screen.
Caesars Sportsbook and WynnBet Arizona are among the top options to check out. Both companies bring a ton of experience to the table, and it shows up in their sports betting offerings. If you’re looking for something different, check out PointsBet Arizona, a sportsbook with a number of innovative features.
NFL MVP data and betting trends
When we take a look at the past winners of the NFL MVP trophy, some trends immediately stick out. To start, we notice some marquee positions among winners: quarterback and running back. If we take a look at more recent years, the data skews even harder toward quarterbacks.
This is because, even though a solid number of running backs have managed to win the award, many of their victories came in the early days of the NFL when the game hinged more on ground attacks. Jim Brown, Paul Hornung, and OJ Simpson all won MVP trophies because of their prowess on the ground. Considering that the game has changed and passing is a much larger aspect, it’s become harder for running backs to win the trophy. That is not to say that it’s impossible, but since 2007 only one running back has won the award, Adrian Peterson in 2012. Clearly, it takes a year for the ages for an RB to be crowned.
On the other side of the ball, only two defensive players have ever won the trophy. They are Alan Page and Lawrence Taylor. Because defensive players are so rarely selected, their odds will usually be extremely high.
How common are NFL MVP repeat winners?
While quarterbacks account for the vast majority of MVP winners, when we take a look at the past recipients of the trophy, we don’t see many repeat winners. The trophy often will go to different players in consecutive years, and it’s fairly rare for a player to win two years in a row.
The last player that won the NFL MVP trophy in two straight seasons was Peyton Manning in 2008 and 2009. Manning won five MVP trophies throughout his career, the most of any player in NFL history. He also won consecutive years after sharing the trophy in 2003 with Steve McNair and then winning in 2004. He won four of his trophies with the Indianapolis Colts and one with the Denver Broncos.
Manning is the exception to the rule, though. Last season’s selection will most likely be one of the favorites to win in the next year, but taking a lesson from history might be smarter. Even players that have won the trophy many times, such as Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, have never won in consecutive years.
How is the NFL MVP decided?
The Associated Press hands out the NFL MVP. At the end of the regular season but before the playoffs begin, 50 sportswriters all vote on which NFL player was the most valuable during that regular season.
Now, how “most valuable” is determined is up to the people with the votes. By looking at the history of the award winners, we can see there are certain characteristics that voters look for when making their decision.
The first is the player’s statistics and accomplishments. This is the largest factor in a player’s case for the MVP award. They need to have excellent statistics to be considered by the voters. For quarterbacks, yards and touchdowns are the classic categories for analyzing a potential MVP. Other categories, such as interceptions, are also important in determining the winner.
Besides stats, team success is a crucial component. No one is going to win the MVP if their team finishes last in the NFL. Thus, when looking at potential candidates for your bet, make sure he plays for a contending team.
Finally, while there have been other NFL MVP awards handed out across the history of the league, none are recognized like the AP version. These days, the AP award is the only one that carries any weight. It is also the only MVP award sportsbooks take wagers on.
Past NFL MVP winners
Here are the past five recipients of the NFL MVP. As you can see, they are all quarterbacks that had great individual years with plenty of team success. Also, note that no player won the award more than one time during these five years.
|2020||Aaron Rodgers||Green Bay Packers|
|2019||Lamar Jackson||Baltimore Ravens|
|2018||Patrick Mahomes||Kansas City Chiefs|
|2017||Tom Brady||New England Patriots|
|2016||Matt Ryan||Atlanta Falcons|
NFL MVPs from Arizona
Regrettably, no Arizona Cardinal has ever won the NFL MVP, at least while playing for the Cardinals. The Cardinals franchise is still waiting for that special someone. Of course, breakout quarterback Kyler Murray may be that player if he lives up to the potential that many believe he possesses.
If we want to dig deeper, there have been MVP winners that were born in the state of Arizona. One great example is Kurt Warner, who did eventually end up playing for the Arizona Cardinals at the end of his career.
Before that time with the Cardinals, Warner was a member of the St. Louis Rams. During this time, he quarterbacked an offense that was one of the most explosive in the league. Therefore, he put up good individual numbers while also playing on a strong team. This led to him securing two NFL MVP trophies. He won the award in both 1999 and 2001.
In short, Warner being born in Arizona, winning MVPs in St. Louis, and later playing for the Cardinals is as close as we get right now.
Other NFL futures odds
While NFL MVP betting is the most common type of futures wager, there are many more odds markets available to bettors. These futures odds for the NFL span all sorts of different betting markets, including: